MLB Picks · Propium

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Today's Picks & Yesterday's Recap

Edge: How much better an offered price is than the fair price. The model strips each sportsbook's built-in margin out of its odds and compares the price against a consensus of the other major books. Edge is modeled, not a promise.
Grade: A letter from F to S set by the edge alone. S means a modeled edge of 10% or more, lower letters follow fixed bands below that, and an edge of −3% or worse is an F. Lines with limited data are capped at C+.
Units: Results are tracked in units, not dollars. Each pick's stake is sized to how much its edge is worth at its odds: from a 0.25-unit floor up to a 1-unit cap. How much a unit is worth is up to you.
ROI: Total units won divided by total units risked, over settled picks only. A push counts as risked with nothing won, which pulls ROI toward zero.
Limited data: Fewer books were quoting this line than the model requires for an actual daily pick. The edge is still shown, but it is less trustworthy, and its grade cannot go above C+.
Pending: The game has not finished or has not been settled yet. A pending pick has no result and is left out of ROI until it settles.